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Texas A&M @ Miami, FL

What We Thought:  We are surprised to see that the line in this game is getting smaller.  We expected the opposite, as Miami's home field advantage used to mean a lot.  These days, though , that Miami fan malaise has set in and there are plenty of tickets to be had.  In fact, don't be shocked if there are  a lot of empty seats in the Orange Bowl tonight, and that is with a name program coming to town.  Speaking of that name program, the Aggies are fifth in the nation in rushing offense (296 yards per game), granted those numbers have come against Montana State, Fresno St, and Louisiana-Monroe.  Still, we like any underdog that might run for 200 and is getting points.  And in addition, the ACC has not impressed this year against non-conference foes (what is the conference's signature win against a rival BCS league...Georgia Tech over hapless Notre Dame?  Florida State over Colorado?  Virginia Tech over East Carolina?  Further, Miami has reinstalled Kyle Wright at quarterback.  He is 2-6 straight up against ranked opponents and 0-5 straight up in his last five starts (1-4 against the spread). 

What Happened:  Miami 34, Texas A&M 17

Miami QB Wright had a career game, the stands were pretty full, and Texas A&M ran for just 116 yards on 30 carries.  The Canes appear able to stop the run...it's a good passing game that gives them fits (witness Oklahoma).

Oklahoma @ Tulsa

What We Think:  Tulsa has a 68-spot advantage in Sagarin schedule strength, mainly because Oklahoma sandwiched whippings of North Texas and Utah State around a whipping of Miami, FL.  The Sooners pass offense looks daunting, ranking 12th in yards (324), third in efficiency, and averaging 11.1 yards per attempt.  But Tulsa's pass game is also something special: 6th in yards (398), fifth in efficiency, and averaging 11.5 yards per attempt.  Assuming that Tulsa can move the ball through the air, the game will come down to who rushes it better.  Easy answer, Oklahoma, who averaged 12.5 yards per carry in its last game.  But we are taking the points and the Golden Hurricane beacuse Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford is a redshirt freshman makng his road debut and we think he may be due for an off game.

Go forth and prosper.