A look at this week’s picks…
Southern Miss comes off an impressive come-from behind victory at East Carolina and has an experienced team and staff heading to Boise. The Golden Eagles won’t be intimidated by BSU’s 58-2 run on the Blue Carpet. They won’t win, but their mobile QB Jeremy Brown will keep them within a score.
Arkansas St. has 102 spots in Sagarin schedule strength and Memphis just got blitzed by Central Florida five days ago. The Indians should run the ball well on the Tigers, who are yielding 183 yards a game on the ground to pretty inferior competition.
Usually, when a top defense meets a top offense, we favor the defense. But the Mountaineers are some different kind of animal. They spread the field and run all over teams, to the tune of 357 yards per game so far this season. In fact, WVU is 5-1 ATS when facing a top 20 rush defense. Weird, huh? USF held WVU in check last year in Morgantown, upsetting the Mountaineers BCS hopes by beating them , 24-19, so there might be a revenge angle here as well. The Bulls will need WVU to have some miscues to stay in this one, as we expected the line to be upward of 15.
Iowa holds a 98-spot advantage in Sagarin schedule strength and are happy to return home after last week’s narrow loss at Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes also desire revenge for last year’s stunning loss to the Hoosiers. Indiana allowed seven sacks last week, which doesn’t bode well for the Hoosiers against Iowa’s potent defensive front. The spread is coming our way, probably because 13.5 (the opening line) seems like a lot for a team with an offense as anemic as Iowa’s. However, 10.5 seems manageable to us.
: Are you surprised? Sunday night I saw the opening line in this game and thought Penn St. was a lock laying only 3.5. But then the stats didn’t bear that initial reaction out. Illinois has played a tougher schedule and they are averaging 265 yards a game on the ground (5th in the nation). Yes, the Lions have a good number in rush defense (54 yards allowed, 6th in nation), but that number was built against pretty inferior competition -- Florida International, Buffalo, the worst Notre Dame team perhaps ever, and a sub-expectations Michigan. Penn St. allowed Buffalo 25 points on the Lions home field. The Illini are going to score. In fact, we won’t be surprised if they win this game.
At the beginning of each season we give each team a ranking based on the number of starters , coaches and staff that return from last season. We also factor in points and yardage differentials and then we use that number to look for teams that might struggle on the road in the first six weeks of the season. Through the early weeks we couldn’t wait for Michigan St. to go on the road., and when the Spartans finally did, after three straight home games, where did they go? South Bend. As you probably know, we were on Notre Dame last week, and they nearly covered. But we still aren’t believers in the Spartans road savvy, and as they take to the trail for a second week, we are going against them again. Michigan St. has yet to play a substantial foe -- that changes this week in Camp Randall.
Iowa St. led by 10 last week with 5:54 to go in the game. A blocked punt in the end zone and some horrific defense allowed Toledo to come back and steal a win (and a half-point cover for us) in the Glass Bowl. The Cyclones have had an up and down season thus far (how can one team lose to Northern Iowa, and then beat Iowa?) and now face a trip to Nebraska, whose fan base is bristling at recent Cornhusker troubles, like last week’s narrow win over Ball St. (a loss for us last week). The Huskers are 0-3 in their last three against the number and have a second straight home date to try to appease those angry fans. The Cyclones have lost their last seven road games and if Nebraska puts them down early, we think the Huskers will pretend like it’s the 1980s and run it up.
Neither one of these teams is averaging over 375 yards of offense, with SMU facing a slightly tougher schedule. By our calculations, with a total of 60.5, there is a 70 percent chance the game goes under, it is an 80 percent chance if that total reaches 63. Just hope that the turnovers stay balanced between the teams.
Remember that aforementioned number we assign teams based on what they have back and what they did last year? UAB received the lowest number this season -- new coach, new quarterback, 24 freshman playing regularly. In other words a prime go-against on the road. UAB is so bad the Blazers had to settle for five field goals in last week’s 22-7 win over Alcorn St. Tulsa, home for the third straight week, figures to bounce back from the thumping administered by Oklahoma last out. The Golden Hurricane have the 10th highest rating in schedule strength, 4th highest-rated pass offense by yardage, and 6th highest-rated pass offense by efficiency. Not good news for the Blazers, who allow 254 per game through the air, and rank 99th in efficiency defense. Tulsa QB Paul Smith pads his stats in this one and the Golden Hurricane roll.
USC travels to Seattle for its first-ever game there under the lights. A primetime audience will watch Washington -- wearing 1960s throwback uniforms -- tries to score a signature win for coach Tyrone Willingham. Two angles lead us to this pick. One is that USC has covered its last two, while Washington has lost its last two against the number, and now USC takes to the road and spots more than 20. By our calculations -- a 70 percent chance that the Huskies will stay within range. The second angle is that USC is inexplicably 1-10 against-the-spread in Game Four over the last eleven years.
In this battle of Bulldogs, both teams come off of byes. La. Tech is on the road for the second straight game and Fresno seeks to shake a La. Tech hex -- Fresno is 0-4 against-the-spread in the last four meetings. This year, however, Fresno has a substantial advantage in passing offense vs. passing defense (245 yards per game vs. 351 yards allowed per game) with a spread under two touchdowns. Also, Fresno’s rush defense, which looks abysmal by the number (222 yards allowed, 107th in the nation) is not as bad when one takes into account that 625 yards of that yardage was gained by Oregon and Texas A&M. As long as Fresno protects the ball, something coach Pat Hill said was worked on diligently through the bye week, the home-standing Bulldogs cruise.
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno St.:
USC @ Washington:
UAB @ Tulsa:
UTEP @ SMU:
Iowa St. @ Nebraska:
Michigan St. @ Wisconsin:
Penn St. @ Illinois
Indiana @ Iowa:
West Virginia @ South Florida:
Memphis @ Arkansas St.:
Southern Miss @ Boise St.: