Auburn comes off of a big win over Florida. Vandy had a cakewalk against Eastern Michigan. The Commodores have not beaten Auburn in any of the 12 meetings the two have had since 1955. To put that in perspective, Tigers head coach Tommy Tuberville was one-year old the last time Auburn wasn’t victorious. Auburn’s narrow win over Kansas St. and its loss to South Florida don’t look so bad now, considering that those two took down Texas and West Virginia last week. The Tigers have a 101-spot advantage Sagarin schedule strength, and rank in the top 40 of all defensive categories. The Commodores figure to have trouble moving the ball, and Auburn’s offense has been expanded in the last three games with its Tim Tebow-like use of freshman QB Kodi Burns. Sidenote that may or may not mean something: Vandy is 3-14 against-the-spread coming off a double-digit win.

Oklahoma St.’s main weakness is against the pass. Teams are averaging 342 yards a game through the air, bad enough to be ranked 101^st in pass defense. The Pokes are also 91^st in efficiency defense. But the Aggies can’t throw the ball (108^th in yardage, 90^th in efficiency). The Cowboys potent run defense (26^th nationally) will slow A&M down, and their own rushing offense (241 yards per game, 8^th in the nation) may dominate the game against an Aggie rush defense that has allowed 128 yards per game to a schedule ranked 115^th. Further, the Aggies are 1-10 against-the-spread in their last 11 against teams averaging more than 5 yards per carry: the Cowboys are averaging 5.5. The fact that the Aggies trail Oklahoma St. by two yards per pass attempt might also be a factor in the outcome. A&M head man Dennis Franchione is feeling the heat. He’s not too popular these days with the 12^th Man, and the administration announced Tuesday that it’s investigating possible recruiting violations. Sometimes these things galvanize a team, but usually they make a team press. The winner here moves to 2-0 in the Big 12 South.

The classic match-up of prolific offense versus shutdown defense. A whole lot of fellow prognosticators love Kansas in this one. Not us. Yes, the Jayhawks average 53.5 points per game, but that high-flying offensive production has come against the likes of Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International (Sagarin schedule strength = 171). Meanwhile, the Wildcats have a 10-point loss to Auburn , two routs over lesser competition, and a dominant win last week at Texas. Kansas St. is 3^rd in total defense (276 yards allowed per game) and figure to reduce the Jayhawks garish offensive numbers. Further, the Wildcats are 9-1 against the number in the first of back-to-back home games and come into this one seeking revenge for a 39-20 spanking received last year in Lawrence -- a game in which Kansas St. turned the ball over six times. Kansas has covered the spread three straight weeks. Under fifth-year coach Mark “Fatman” Mangino, the Jayhawks have only once covered four in a row.

La. Tech has to be road weary heading into its third straight road game. Ole Miss desperately needs a win, having lost four straight since a narrow opening win over Memphis. The Rebels have to be happy to have a non-conference respite before they begin an SEC string that includes Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn. In fact, this might be the Rebs only chance for a win in October. The Bulldogs don’t have nearly the level of talent the Rebels saw the last two games against Florida and Georgia, so the going should be easier on both sides of the ball. The Rebels average 3.5 yards more per pass attempt than Louisiana Tech -- a figure that indicates Ole Miss could dominate on the offensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs have gone 2-0-1 against the number in their last three, and they are 1-9 ATS as a non-conference dog of more than three points.

The vaunted rushing attack of the Clemson Tigers was held to just 34 yards on 32 carries last week at Georgia Tech. Tiger RB C.J. Spiller garnered just two yards on nine rushes. Clemson aims to get that running game going this week against a Virginia Tech rush defense that has improved its rankings over the last three weeks with games against Ohio and William & Mary in that span , but has yielded 188 yards per game in three contests with teams from BCS conferences. It won’t take many points for the Tigers to win as the Hokies offense continues to reel. Virginia Tech is 91^st in rushing, 104^th in passing, 107^th in passing efficiency, and 106^th in third-down conversions. Also, Tech freshman QB Tyrod Taylor, named the started after Tech was humiliated in week two by LSU, makes his first road start. Taylor was 16-of-32 for a paltry 138 yards in his last two games, and those numbers came against UNC and William & Mary. Clemson is 8^th in pass defense, and 7^th in pass efficiency defense. This game may be proof that early-season polls aren’t worth much. One has to ask…why are the Hokies ranked 15^th? It is a good thing because it has kept this spread much shorter than it should be.

Both teams come off shocking losses, Oklahoma as a 23.5-point favorite at Colorado and Texas as a 14-point favorite at home vs. Kansas St. So this game doesn’t quite have the allure it had a week ago when both teams were in the Top 10. Texas has won the last two meetings after losing five in a row to the Sooners. The Longhorns appear to be outmatched in this one. Oklahoma was held to 24 points last week, which brought its points-per-game average down to 54 (!) while the Longhorns have allowed 41 and 32 to Kansas St, and Central Florida, respectively. Those two teams represent the two best squads Texas has faced. The Longhorns offense has been pretty pedestrian as indicated by the fact that it ranks no higher than 37^th in any major category, and those numbers came with a healthy QB Colt McCoy at the controls. The concussed McCoy may not play in this one, and even if he does he will have to improve on last week‘s effort when he threw four interceptions. One more reason we like the Sooners: under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 11-1 against the spread coming off a loss.

After losses at Arizona St., Kansas St., and Stanford, San Jose has found a groove against foes of its own caliber, eking out a 3-point win over Utah St. in the fourth of four straight road games, and then besting second-tier Cal-Davis last week. Idaho, on the other hand, has been sliding backward ever since managing to stay within 28 of USC in week one. Idaho boasts a new coach and a red shirt freshman QB, Nathan Enderle, making his third road start. Enderle has thrown 12 picks in his last three games and two have been returned for touchdowns. And then there are a slew of angles in this one: San Jose is 10-1 against the spread against opponents off back-to-back losses, it is 7-1 ATS as a favorite after scoring more than 34 points in its last game, and it is 3-0 against the number the week before playing Hawaii.

Auburn shocked Florida last week as a 19-point underdog, catching the Gators as they possibly looked ahead to this contest. Now it will be Florida’s task not to let the Auburn loss beat them twice. Florida defeated LSU by 13 last season in the Swamp. The teams appear equal in most statistical categories: differentials in the rankings of less than 26 in every major area, including rather pedestrian schedule strength numbers of 42 for Florida and 63 for LSU. That kind of statistical similarity alone makes us lean toward an underdog of a touchdown or more. The Gators do have a significant 3.4 yard advantage in pass yards per attempt and LSU has struggled as a home favorite when playing with revenge, going just 2-9-2 against the number the last 13 times the situation has arisen. Interestingly, Florida is 20-3 since losing to the Tigers in 2005, a game after which Florida head coach Urban Meyer choked up in the press conference and said he needed to re-evaluate his offense since then-QB Chris Leak had been sacked four times and pressured into an 11-for-30 day. Last season the Gators allowed 23 sacks in 14 games, and this year Florida quarterbacks have gone down just twice. Meyer is 10-0-1 as an underdog in the SEC.

Remember last season when Ohio St. traveled to Iowa to play a primetime game at Iowa, and the crowd was jacked and everyone was calling for the Hawkeye upset of the Buckeyes? Ohio St. was a 6.5 point favorite in that game, and rolled to an easy 38-17 win. Sounds pretty familiar, huh? Purdue might be 35^th in rushing, 15^th in passing yardage, and 15^th in efficiency, but that doesn’t make us believers, not when the Boilermakers have routed the likes Toledo and Eastern Illinois. Purdue’s defense will be the one getting tested here: the Boilermakers yielded an average of 457 yards of offense to their last three opponents, none of whom are very good (Central Michigan, Minnesota, and Notre Dame).

We got on board too early for the Notre Dame cover, taking the Irish when newbie-filled Michigan State came to South Bend. Purdue’s porous defense, and perhaps an injury to frosh quarterback Jimmy Claussen allowed the Dame to break an 0-4 against-the-spread skid. Time to go against them again. But for an inexplicable hiccup/rout loss at Utah, UCLA has covered in each of its games, won each of those covers by an average point differential of 19.25, and gone 16-4 against the number in its last 20 home games The Irish won last year’s contest, 20-17, on an 80-yard drive in the last 1:29 of the game, which can only serve as motivation for yet another team that expects to exact revenge on Notre Dame. Statistically, things don’t bode well for the Irish, either. UCLA figures to run at will against a Notre Dame rush defense ranked 107^th (210 yards allowed per game) and the question remains: how will the Irish score enough to cover, let alone win (119^th in rushing, 106^th in passing, 118^th in points per game)? The only thing going for Notre Dame is that UCLA may be looking ahead to California. The Bruins are 1-4 against the spread the week before playing Cal. Obviously, we don’t think that morsel matters in this one.

Tulsa's offense was impressive last out versus UAB, a young team on the road. The Golden Hurricane rolled up 695 yards of offense and somehow managed to win by just eight, thanks to three turnovers that turned into 13 points for the Blazers, and an abysmal defensive effort that yielded 400+ yards and 30 points to the visitors. Unlike last week, the Hurricane won’t have to cover double digits to get the ATS win here -- the spread against Conference USA West foe UTEP is a manageable three points. The Miners have been developing a pretty good running game -- rushing for an average 184 yards per game, including 308 in last week’s come-from-behind overtime win over SMU. But on the whole, the Miners have not played the level of competition that Tulsa has, and if the Hurricane can avoid putting up a minus in turnover margin, they should be able to exploit a UTEP passing defense ranked 106^th in yardage allowed (278 yards per game) and 79^th in efficiency defense.

Check back Saturday night for NFL picks.

Go Forth and Prosper!

Tulsa @ UTEP

Notre Dame @ UCLA:

Ohio St. @ Purdue:

Florida @ LSU:

Idaho @ San Jose St.:

Oklahoma @ Texas:

Virginia Tech @ Clemson:

Louisiana Tech @ Ole Miss:

Kansas @ Kansas St.:

Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M:

Vanderbilt @ Auburn: