South Carolina @ North Carolina (+ 7.5):

There are a couple of teams in the Top 10 that just don’t deserve to be there in our opinion, and one of them is South Carolina (the other is Virginia Tech). The Gamecocks have risen to 7^th in the polls and covered four straight, despite the fact that they are below average defensively. South Carolina yields an average of 193 yards per game on the ground, one reason that their pass defense is ranked 1^st in the land. Offenses have not had to pass effectively in order to move the ball. North Carolina is showing improvement on the ground. After three straight games rushing under 100 yards, they ran for 124 and 183 the last two weeks against Virginia Tech and Miami, respectively. The Tar Heels figure to enjoy South Carolina’s porous defensive front and may well outrush the Gamecocks, as SC is average running the ball, as well (130 yards per game, 76^th nationally). Also, UNC averages nearly one yard more per pass attempt than SC, has a slight advantage in schedule strength, and faces a red-shirt freshman quarterback in SC’s Chris Smelley. Smelley is making his first career start on the road.

Toledo @ Buffalo (- 3):

This is one of those lines that caused us to do a double take. It feels wrong, perhaps because Toledo has been at or near the top of MAC for the last few years while Buffalo has been a doormat. But, as I’ve written before, if a line feels wrong, it is probably right. None of us are millionaires, but the people who make the lines for Vegas are. Further, there is some statistical backing for this play. Buffalo comes off an impressive 31-10 victory over Ohio and now gets a second-straight home game. Toledo also enters off a win, but it was a 35-34 shootout with Liberty, not exactly a team that should have pushed the Rockets. The only other win Toledo has this year was a miracle comeback win over Iowa St., and it too was by a single point. The Rockets are 109^th in rush defense, allowing 213 yards per game. The Bulls rushed for 251 last out against a similarly poor rush defense. The Rockets are struggling at quarterback. Both season-starter Aaron Opelt and backup Clint Cochrane are still hobbled, so Toledo will again start true freshman D.J. Lenehan at quarterback. Lenehan was 19-of-22 passing last week against Liberty. Is it likely that he will have that kind of continued success on the road? We think not.

Bowling Green (+ 1.5) @ Miami, OH

A critical MAC East matchup. Both teams have faced some tough competition, but Miami has shown a weakness against the pass -- four of its six opponents have thrown for at least 260 yards. Bowling Green is sixth in the nation throwing the ball, averaging 352 yards per game. The Redhawks are 2-0 in conference with a +10 against-the-spread point differential, while Bowling Green is 0-1 and but only - 8. We believe this indicates that Miami is slightly overvalued as a favorite. Miami is also 104^th against the run, 109^th in 3^rd down defense, and 117^th in scoring offense. If the Falcons adjust to life on the road (this is their second of three straight road games) and avoid the turnovers that plagued them in last week’s blowout loss at Boston College, they could win this game outright.

Rice @ Houston (- 22.5)

Houston pushed Alabama last week, losing by only six at Tuscaloosa while Rice got a totally undeserved win over Southern Miss. The Owls profited from seven So. Miss turnovers, turning four of them into 24 points. Rice won despite gaining just 236 yards of offense. The campuses of Rice and Houston are situated just five miles from one another, so this game has rivalry flavor -- the Owls lost by just one point last season, but that team was coached by the Todd Graham, who departed for Tulsa. New head man David Bailiff has had a frustrating season so far -- the Owls are no better than 74^th in any key category and are 101^st or worse in every offensive one. The Cougars, on the other hand, are 30^th in rushing, 23^rd in passing, 31^st in efficiency, and 41^st in scoring offense. Rice lost to Nicholls State to open the season and has yielded 42, 59, and 58 to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas, respectively. All those teams passed effectively, as does Houston. Rice doesn’t appear to have the offense to stay with the Cougars, who should cover three touchdowns plus here.

Washington St. @ Oregon (- 19)

Oregon had a bye last week after its tough-to-swallow loss to California. Washington St. lost at home to Arizona St. on a last-minute field goal, and now the Cougars return to the road, where they have been outscored by an average of 27 points per game in losses to Wisconsin, USC, and Arizona. Oregon holds advantages in pass offense, efficiency, 3^rd down offense, and scoring offense. The Ducks also average 276 yards per game on the ground. A favorite that can run for 250-299 yards covers 65 percent of the time. Oregon is 12-1 after a bye week under head coach Mike Bellotti.

Oregon St. (+ 14.5) @ California

Oregon St. has turned the ball over 23 times this season, a turnover margin of minus-9, while California‘s defense has produced 15 takeaways for a margin of plus 11. Contrary to what you might think, we favor Oregon St. in this one because ball security will be a priority, and the Beavers may have turned a corner in that regard last week when they were plus-one in a 31-16 win over Arizona. Oregon St.‘s rush defense has been dominant this season -- best in the nation at 43 yards allowed per game. The Golden Bears are ranked second in the country in the major polls, hardly a good harbinger for ATS success the last two weeks as Top 10 teams have gone 9-10 against the number. Taking the average yards gained on offense against similarly-ranked schedules, the Beavers have a surprising 394-357 advantage, a differential of 36 yards. Favorites who can be outrushed by 50 yards cover under 20 percent of the time, so there is a shot here if the Beavers can avoid a minus in the turnover department. Also, the Beavers have had success against Cal, winning six of the last eight meetings. Cal coach Jeff Tedford is 2-3 against the Beavers. Angle that may mean nothing: Cal is inexplicably 1-7 against the number in its first home game following a road win as an underdog.

Auburn (- 3) @ Arkansas

Who knows where Arkansas fans get their egos, or why they think the Razorbacks should be elite every year in the toughest conference in America, but a plane flew over last week’s lackluster home win over 1-AA Chattanooga pulling a sign that read “There’s Nuttin’ Like Being 0-2 In The SEC” a shot at embattled Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt. That kind of dissent from the fans can’t be good with an Auburn team that has turned the corner coming to Fayetteville with revenge on its mind. The Tigers lost at home to the Razorbacks last season, 27-10, and Arkansas went on to win the SEC West. Arkansas has two of the top eight rushers in the land in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but the Tigers are yielding just 116 yards per game on the ground (33^rd nationally), so the tandem‘s rushing yards may be harder to come by. McFadden is playing with bruised ribs and needs just 32 yards to become Arkansas’ all-time leading rusher. He will get those yards, but Auburn’s defense has strong numbers against a schedule rated 94 spots higher than the Razorbacks (14^th against the pass, 13^th in efficiency, 34^th in 3^rd down percentage, and 17^th in points allowed). By our calculations, Auburn should be the favorite here, which makes them an excellent candidate to send those Arkansas fans home sad and angry.

Connecticut (+ 3.5) @ Virginia

This is how bad Connecticut’s schedule has been thus far -- Virginia represents the best team the Huskies have faced. Connecticut narrowly won at home against Temple three games back, but since then they have improved, posting dominant wins over Pitt and Akron. Virginia, meanwhile, has won five straight since a season-opening loss to Wyoming. Last week’s two-point win over Middle Tennessee St allowed the 5-1 Cavs to match last season’s win total. The undefeated Huskies aren’t even ranked, but figure to outrush Virginia in this one. By average, Connecticut should best the Cavaliers on the ground, 149-108. Not good news for a Virginia team that has won four of its five games by an average of just five points. In addition, the Huskies have a sizeable advantage in yards per attempt -- 8.0 to 5.5. A 2.5-yard advantage in YPA for an underdog gives them a 65 percent chance of covering. Add in the rush advantage and Virginia’s propensity for close games, and the Huskies look like a very solid play as an underdog.

Louisiana-Monroe (-7) @ North Texas

Monroe has a higher-rated schedule and boasts the 13^th best rushing attack in the country (224 yards per game). North Texas is next to last in rush defense, allowing 255 yards per game. Historically, any favorite of seven or less that can run for 250 yards is an excellent play. In addition the Warhawks of Monroe are coming off an impressive come-from-behind 30-13 win over conference foe Arkansas St., a game in which Monroe fell behind 13-0 and then never yielded another score. The Mean Green Eagles’ offense is predicated on passing first, and they will have some success moving the ball through the air against a Monroe defense that is 103^rd in the land against the pass. However, North Texas is an abysmal 91^st in efficiency because it turns the ball over with regularity -- the Mean Green have been minus-2 or worse in every game but one.

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Go Forth and Prosper!